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United Nations
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Belgrade
Review of Urgent
Assistance Needs for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Excluding
Kosovo)
Winter/Spring
2000/2001
December 5, 2000
Annex 4
Breakdown of needs in Energy Sector
|
Item |
December |
January1 |
February |
March |
Total |
Value
M USD |
|
Electricity (Million kWh) |
|
Requirement2 |
3712 |
3746 |
3383 |
3280 |
14121 |
494 |
|
Domestic production3 |
2862 |
2896 |
2603 |
2985 |
11346 |
397 |
|
Required Imports |
850 |
850 |
780 |
295 |
2775 |
97 |
|
Government Financed Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assistance4 |
500 |
300 |
300 |
200 |
1300 |
45 |
|
Unmet requirements |
350 |
550 |
480 |
95 |
1475 |
52 |
|
Diesel5
(tons) |
|
Requirement6 |
50000 |
45000 |
45000 |
55000 |
195000 |
68,4 |
|
Domestic production |
6000 |
6000 |
6000 |
6000 |
24000 |
8,4 |
|
Required Imports |
44000 |
39000 |
39000 |
49000 |
171000 |
60,0 |
|
Government Financed Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assistance |
24600 |
|
|
|
24600 |
8,6 |
|
Unmet requirements |
19400 |
39000 |
39000 |
49000 |
146400 |
51,4 |
|
Mazut (tons) |
|
Requirement7 |
60000 |
55000 |
55000 |
50000 |
220000 |
40,5 |
|
Domestic production |
6500 |
6500 |
6500 |
6500 |
28000 |
5,2 |
|
Required Imports |
53500 |
48500 |
48500 |
43500 |
192000 |
35,3 |
|
Government Financed Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assistance |
24500 |
24500 |
24500 |
24500 |
98000 |
18,0 |
|
Unmet requirements |
29000 |
24000 |
24000 |
19000 |
94000 |
17,3 |
|
Crude oil equivalent of
required diesel and mazut (tons)8 |
|
Requirement |
170000 |
160000 |
160000 |
160000 |
650000 |
|
|
Domestic production |
20000 |
20000 |
20000 |
20000 |
80000 |
|
|
Required Imports |
150000 |
140000 |
140000 |
140000 |
570000 |
83,0 |
|
Government Financed Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assistance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmet requirements |
150000 |
140000 |
140000 |
140000 |
570000 |
83,0 |
|
Natural Gas (million cub.
meters) |
|
Requirement |
410,3 |
412,9 |
362,1 |
287,6 |
1472,9 |
198,8 |
|
Domestic production |
60,3 |
60,3 |
54,4 |
60,3 |
235,3 |
31,8 |
|
Required Imports |
350,0 |
352,6 |
307,7 |
227,3 |
1237,6 |
167,0 |
|
Government Financed Imports9 |
93,0 |
22,0 |
|
|
115,0 |
15,5 |
|
Assistance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmet requirements |
247,0 |
340,6 |
307,7 |
227,3 |
1122,6 |
151,5 |
|
Spare parts &
Equipment (million USD) |
|
Urgent Requirements |
24 |
|
|
|
24 |
24 |
|
Domestic production10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Required Imports |
24 |
|
|
|
24 |
24 |
|
Government Financed Imports11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assistance |
11 |
|
|
|
11 |
11 |
|
Unmet requirements |
13 |
|
|
|
13 |
13 |
Further breakdown of urgent needs for industry
and agriculture (in US$ million)
|
|
Diesel |
Mazut |
Natural Gas |
|
Food Processing Industry |
5.2 |
8.3 |
51.0 |
|
Pharmaceutical Industry |
0.5 |
1.0 |
|
|
Agricultural sector (private and state
farms) |
34.1 |
|
|
|
Farming (livestock) |
1.6 |
0.7 |
|
|
Total |
41.4 |
10.0 |
51.0 |
1) The energy requirements of the fertilizers
industry amount to about 138,3M m3 of natural gas and are included, in the
above table, in the total requirements of the food processing industry.
2) About 10% of total available electricity is
used in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
3) Most of the above energy requirements remain
unmet by domestic energy production or international energy-related
assistance.
1 To be considered as a critical
month due to weather conditions, probability of technical failures during New
Year holidays accompanied with decreased emergency response capacity of
various donors / service providers.
2 Requirements include Serbia and
Montenegro excluding Kosovo production and consumption at standard
meteorological year. Government refrains from introducing any electricity
saving / conservation measures.
3 Estimation based on optimistic
assumptions about sustainability of domestic power generation and coal
production. There is significant probability of technical failures that might
cut down domestic production in large steps as larger generators may go out of
service. Further slowdown in coal supply to thermal power plants is to be
estimated from January. Certain reserve of about 4% of electricity generation
capacity is assumed in the table as natural gas requirements of gas fired
power plants are included in gas requirements while domestic power generation
contains moderate output of these plants.
4 Electricity imports arranged with German
and EU funding and adjusted according to transmission capacities. Government
of Serbia asked Swiss government to provide funding for "pension
funds" instead of providing additional electricity imports. Additional
assistance might be available from some other countries but still not
confirmed. There is significant shortage in electricity on regional market. It
is to be considered that required quantities can not be provided without
significant changes on regional market structure.
5 Requirements for diesel, mazut and
natural gas are calculated only for Serbia excluding Kosovo as Montenegro is
not covered by natural gas grid and receives oil products from Mediterranean
market at regular basis. Taking into account weather conditions and heating
habits in Montenegro there is no significant concerns.
6 Diesel requirements do not include public
transport.
7 Requirements are calculated based on
standard requirements of thermal power plants where mazut is used for start
ups. If lignite / coal quality / quantity decline in January more mazut will
be required to support burning process at the rate of 40 tons per hour
maximum. However, any technical failures on major generators might reduce
mazut requirements.
8 It is highly desirable to provide import
of crude oil instead of mazut and diesel. From 570000 tons of crude oil
domestic refineries might be able to generate above quantities of mazut and
diesel plus about 143000 tons of motor gasoline worth about 50 million USD.
Such quantities of gasoline might provide government with opportunity to
finance required imports of natural gas or electricity. However, proposed
import of mazut is not completely feasible due to various transport problems.
Instead of that crude oil might be delivered via Adria pipeline directly to
refineries in Pancevo and Novi Sad. Assessment of Pancevo refinery to sustain
operation during winter is available from UK engineers.
9 Credit arrangement between FRY and the
Russian federation. Outstanding debts from previous years are postponed
through same arrangement.
10 Spare parts, equipment and services from
local providers are required in large amounts. However, nothing has been
provided to energy sector up to now and there is no initiative for any
provisions. Energy companies have not released detailed requirements. There
were serious attempts to persuade international donors to provide locally
available assistance. Substantial amount of domestic services will be required
for installation / commissioning of international assistance. It is not clear
if government is willing to provide appropriate funding. Provision has been
made to transfer part of the revenues from sales of imported electricity to
pension funds. Provisional figure are estimated to be over 100 million USD in
local currency. Some equipment from donors assistance from the previous winter
is still not applied due to lack of domestic resources / coordination. These
aspects are considered when required foreign assistance in spares &
equipment is estimated. Focus has been made on spares & equipment that
might be applied without external service – just with capabilities of energy
companies. Such an approach could seriously affect prioritisation system
increasing a risk of further technical failures.
11 Two credit arrangements
(with China and Russia) made by FRY government have been delayed. Equipment
and spare parts from those arrangements are currently arriving to destinations
in FRY. Total value of these arrangements is estimated to be up to 200 million
USD at somewhat inflated prices. Delivery of these items is assumed in this
analyses.
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