The Revised 1999 CAP for the Southeastern Humanitarian Operation is intended to be a clear communication to you, as donor member countries, of resource needs to meet the complex emergency in the region. In this sense, it represents a sizeable portion of the now US$ 2.15 billion in worldwide funding requirement for the 14 Consolidated Appeals issued in 1999. I would remind you that the global shortfall for CAPs is an estimated US$ 1.3 billion as of 15 July. Of that amount, US$ 434 million is still needed for the Southeastern Europe operation.

Like the Mid-Term Reviews presented last week, however, this CAP Revision is much more than a resource mobilization tool. It is the expression of a common strategy, of a common vision by the UN and specialized agencies in confronting a complex emergency. This document is intended as a reference for donors, and we hope it proves useful to you in understanding the humanitarian and other needs of the region.

This Revised 1999 CAP for the Southeastern Europe Humanitarian Operation is being released today after a nearly three-week delay. You have been updated regularly as to the inter-agency planning involved and as to the reasons for delay, and I want to thank you for your understanding and reassure you that the product before you reflects the best available information at this time. In short, the time since the original 9 July target date for release was used to reassess the humanitarian needs related to the Kosovo crisis. It had become apparent in the first month of international access that the number of IDPs in Kosovo had been over-projected, and the capacity of certain parts of the population for recovery had been underestimated, prior to the 10 June settlement and UN Security Council Resolution 1244.

The situation in Southeastern Europe has been changing very rapidly in 1999, and this document is the sixth in the CA process in seven months. It consolidates the original 1999 CAP for former Yugoslavia and Albania with the 1 April Donor Alert for Urgent Needs Related to the Kosovo Crisis, and its three addenda. In comparison to those earlier documents, however, the total budget requirement has been reduced by US$ 159 million through revision of programmes to reflect the changed operating environment and agency priorities for the remainder of 1999. The Revised 1999 Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal for the Southeastern Europe Humanitarian Operation identifies a total unfounded resource requirement for the 13 participating agencies amounting to approximately US$ 434 million. This includes Kosovo-related needs of USS 290 million, as well as US$ 144 million for unmet needs of post-Dayton programmes. Countries covered in the Revised CAP are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (including Kosovo), and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

Included as an annex to our document is the new integrated funding appeal of the Red Cross and Red Cross Movement. Their appeal identifies needs for Sfr 325 million (US$ 215) for programs in Southeastern Europe April-December 1999.

The bulk of the resource requirements in this document concerns the urgent needs in 1999 related to the Kosovo crisis. This is no surprise. You will recall that the peak rate of outflow from Kosovo during the conflict this Spring reached 80,000 per day, with over a quarter of a million fleeing to neighboring countries/republics in the first week alone. Then in mid-July, as the humanitarian community was preparing to help hundreds of thousands of Kosovo refugees get through the winter, the tides turned. Once the return of refugees began, the peak rate quickly climbed to 50,000 per day. Within three weeks of the 10 June settlement, half a million people had returned, and now, just over six weeks after the first spontaneous returns, over 720,000 have returned.

After over 18 months of a steadily, and sometimes dramatically, deteriorating humanitarian situation in Kosovo, events of the past 7 weeks have begun to change the nature of the needs for international intervention. The rapid, and predominantly spontaneous, repatriation has been a massive boost for the rehabilitation of Kosovo, and a relief to the previous host communities. The new humanitarian situation may not be a catastrophe, yet it is undoubtedly precarious, with the potential to deteriorate quickly if worrying elements are not promptly and systematically addressed in the coming months. If major efforts are not made in the upcoming months to help the most vulnerable population groups and establish basic services, Winter could bring a serious deterioration in the humanitarian situation. In addition, there will be a continuing need to support and assist those refugees who decide to remain in the neighbouring countries and republics during the Winter. The communities which hosted the Kosovo refugees in 1999 will continue to feel the impact and need recovery assistance, particularly in Albania and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Finally, a major increase in assistance is needed to meet humanitarian needs of refugees, IDPs, and other civilians affected by the conflict in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) outside Kosovo, consistent with the principle of impartiality in humanitarian assistance. It must be said that new needs may come to light as assessments of the humanitarian situation in the Federal Republic proceed. The poor condition of public utilities is a special concern for the upcoming Winter.

If Kosovo is to become viable, its problems cannot be treated in isolation - they must be seen in the broader, regional perspective. The humanitarian and political crises in the Balkans can only be resolved - and prevented - through regional, concomitant processes of democratization and economic integration. The UN Secretary-General has repeatedly emphasized this point, as have his two Special Envoys.

A crucial linchpin of regional recovery from the conflicts of the 1990s is the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (outside Kosovo) which faces immediate and significant humanitarian challenges and ultimately must be reintegrated into the fold of regional and European economic and political activity. The Revised CAP includes approximately US$ 119 million of unmet funding requirements for humanitarian assistance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia outside Kosovo. This estimate is based on ongoing assessments of new needs as well as on adjusted post-Dayton requirements in light of the new difficulties facing refugees and other war-affected persons throughout the country. Please note that the activities and costs included in this appeal are limited to those justified by initial assessments, but that more detailed technical needs assessments are now underway.

Finally a word about the overall funding level against the Revised 1999 CAP for Southeastern Europe. You, as the donor community, have responded admirably to the fast-moving developments of 1999. Whereas the initial 1999 CAP foresaw a need for US$ 359 million, the rapid deterioration of the Kosovo crisis in March-April greatly increased the needs. You came through to fund a total as of 15 July of US$ 505 million, or 54% of the revised needs. This means the total now requested for the remainder of 1999 by participating agencies is US$ 434 million for the whole region.