Let me first of all stress how impressed I am,
after two weeks on the ground, by the spirit of co-operation between
the different international organizations working in Kosovo, by
their readiness to overcome difficult conditions, and by their
determination to make things happen. This is only exceeded by the
efforts and the enthusiasm of the Kosovar population determined to
leave behind them a decade of systematic deprivation and the
traumatic experience of attempted ethnic cleansing.
I am confident that we can build on this
tremendous good-will and the international community's determination
to establish a systematic and complementary approach for the
different donors.
To allow UNMIK to plan the reconstruction of
Kosovo and to enable the donor community to programme support for
this plan, we obviously have to have a clear picture of what is to
be done in the short run as well as in the medium and long term.
This requires, on the one hand, a sound damage assessment and, on
the other hand, a joint strategy towards the reconstruction and
further development of Kosovo.
In this speech I will summarize the information
available at this moment on the damage and the cost of
reconstruction and indicate at the end how the next steps of a
successful and sustainable assistance strategy should be defined.
Already in early 1999, the European Commission
had commissioned a study from the International Management Group to
assess the damage caused during the one year of civil unrest in
Kosovo. The survey showed that right from the beginning of the
unrest in early 1998, the Serbian troops and the paramilitary, in
their rampant campaign to intimidate the Kosovar Albanians, has
started to destroy dwellings. According to the study, 29.000 out of
60.000 houses assessed had been damaged.
These findings were soon overtaken by events:
After the failure of the Rambouillet Agreement and the beginning of
NATO action, the Serbian campaign of intimidation and violence
against the Kosovar Albanians was accelerated and expanded - causing
the destruction of a considerable percentage of the individual
housing stock and of public buildings. Only a very limited amount of
damage was caused by NATO bombings. Unfortunately, vandalism and
destruction - now mainly of Serbian homes - continue until to-day.
Following the withdrawal of Yugoslav troops in
mid-June, the findings of IMG's first study had to be up-dated to
identify the level of additional damage and of the additional
reconstruction requirements. The consultant was assigned two tasks:
- first a quick assessment of the damages
focusing on the scale and cost of the urgent repairs of houses and
related basic infrastructure. A quick start of these repairs will
complement the emergency humanitarian assistance and will enable
refugees to return to their homes before the beginning of the
winter.
- The second task is the completion of a more
comprehensive study - taking into consideration the findings of
other organizations - in order to prepare the longer term
reconstruction process, including the establishment of a database as
a lasting instrument for all international assistance. This more
detailed assessment - to be completed within six months - will also
cover the transport infrastructure, public utilities, the economic
infrastructure and the religious and cultural heritage of Kosovo.
The first task, the rapid assessment, has been completed and the
findings be summarized as follows:
1. As far as housing is
concerned:
A survey - building upon the February findings
- has been carried out covering almost all of the more than 1400
villages in Kosovo. The assessment was done over a three-week
period by four teams of altogether 20 people, including architects
and civil engineers.
In total 120.000 housing units have been
damaged - out of total housing stock of approximately 250.000
units. In comparison with the February figures, the number of
damaged houses has significantly increased.
Not all houses have been damaged to the same
extent. Damage assessment in the study has been classified
according to four categories - with categories 3 and 4
representing 40 to 100 percent damage. Around 65 % of the damaged
houses, or 78.000 units, are listed under these categories. They
will require complete, or near complete rebuilding.
Another damage assessment has been carried out
by UNHCR. Although using a different methodology (based on a
smaller sample of villages and involving a network of NGO's and
KFOR in the field work), their figures largely corroborate the IMG
findings. Comparing the present situation with the situation
before March, UNHCR records a two-fold increase in severely
damaged homes and a near tripling of completely destroyed houses.
Additionally, figures are available from NIMA,
the US Government's National Imagery and Mapping Agency. Analysis
of remote sensing and intelligence data during the Yugoslav troop
withdrawal of Kosovo indicates that approximately 68.000 buildings
were seriously damaged. As not all damage can be observed from the
air and part of the remote sensing image date from before the end
of the occupation, the NIMA figure also corroborates the IMG
findings.
All three surveys indicate that from a
geographical point of view the highest percentage of destruction
falls within the areas with the highest ethnic Albanian
population. With the exception of Djakovica, Decani, Pec and
Mitrovica, relatively small percentages of destruction were
observed in major cities, where damage was more isolated and
highly selective. Less destruction was identified in the
predominantly ethnic Serb populated areas.
The estimates from the three sources indicate a
similar magnitude of damage. Cost estimates for the housing
damages in the assessment amount to 1,1 bn EURO. This
amount reflects the structural damage as well as the damage inside
the houses excluding furniture, household appliances and personal
effects. This amount is an estimate of the full replacement value,
i.e. it is the monetary cost of reconstituting the property, using
in some instances improved standards of construction.
In order to estimate the realistic cost of
reconstruction, and the need for external assistance, it has to be
borne in mind that most of the repair work can be carried out by
the owners themselves and will not require cash payments.
Secondly, that not all houses will be reconstructed, and thirdly
that not all reconstruction will follow the previous design.
Therefore, the monetary cost of the reconstruction of the houses
-and the need for foreign assistance- might be well below the
quoted figure. In the short run, the most urgent need is
for the structural repairs on the outside (roofs, walls, doors and
windows) in order to make the house fit for habitation. A rough
estimate of the cost of the immediate supply of the most urgently
needed building materials for structural repairs might range from
20 to 25 % of the global housing stock rehabilitation cost.
2. The value of the damage to basic
local infrastructure (namely schools, health centers, local
energy and water distribution networks) is estimated at 40 million
EURO. More detailed surveys by them, KFOR and - I understand - by
UNHCR with the help of Oxfam, by UNICEF on schools and WHO on
health facilities will follow.
3. As far as the physical infrastructure
is concerned, first findings for the transport sector
indicate that the roads in Kosovo have not suffered much from the
war but are degraded due to lack of maintenance. Cost estimates
for the immediate supply of equipment for emergency repair as well
as for urgently needed ice and snow-clearing equipment amount to 4
million EURO. Annual maintenance costs for the existing network
are estimated at 8,4 million EURO, repair costs for the 13
destroyed bridges at 9 million EURO, and rehabilitation costs for
Pristina airport at 10 million EURO.
4. The comprehensive study will also
cover the damage to productive infrastructure. This is a
complex problem that should be tackled from the angle of
investment needs for productive infrastructure rather than from
the angle of the damage suffered. This also applies to the public
utilities such as the power stations.
Putting together the available estimates for
urgent structural repairs to houses, for basic local services and
for physical infrastructure, one arrives at a total amount of around
300 million EURO to be made available before the end of the year.
This figure excludes the internal repairs to houses and the
investment in productive investment and is of course liable to be
revised once more detailed estimates are made of the repairs to
infrastructure.
Only after the availability of more comprehensive
assessments can the overall costs for reconstruction be known more
precisely. We will address these issues again at the next
conference.
THE WAY AHEAD
Producing estimates of damage or of
reconstruction costs is not an academic exercise, and lack of
comprehensive data or of absolute precision is no excuse for
delaying action.
At this moment, apart from the emergency relief
program, various donors have already committed funds for the
reconstruction effort and are preparing their operational programs.
More resources will be needed. It is however as important that a
common approach is defined for the implementation of the
reconstruction assistance.
To ensure maximum efficiency of the assistance
and a smooth transition between the present emergency phase and the
rehabilitation and reconstruction phase, UNMIK have to put into
place a policy framework identifying priorities within which donors
could act in close cooperation with each other. During the past
weeks numerous meetings have taken place in Pristina, and some
principles regarding our work have emerged.
In the first place, it is generally
accepted that the reconstruction process provides a unique
opportunity to support local economic activity, to strengthen
community involvement and solidarity, and to foster closer economic
links within the region. This implies that every effort has to be
made to ensure